Hi option traders. I hope you’re having a great day. In this article I want to discuss standard deviations and probabilities as they are calculated by the popular options analytical software that is on the market. In the video that is attached to this article we are using software by Think or Swim. This is one of the most popular software programs in the world. It has a built-in feature to help us calculate probability of complex option strategies, but there is one thing missing when we use this feature. The software does not consider the current trend of the underlying that is being analyzed. Instead, the software always assumes that the underlying is trending sideways.
A Study of
Iron Condor Probability and Standard Deviations
Every experienced option trader knows that technical analysis works. Obviously, we can never be 100% sure about the direction, but it’s fair to say that we are right more times than we are wrong. Now, options analytical software calculates probabilities on the assumption that the market is always going sideways. It assumes that we are investing on a perfectly flat and level playing surface. This is not correct, so when we analyze our trades without thinking about technical analysis, we are not gathering an accurate probability.
Let’s look at an example. If the market is trending down, and we are using software that assumes the market is trending sideways, then the probability calculation for that trade will not be accurate. In this video we are looking at a Condor spread which is at the money. The software shows it has a probability of the about 79%; however, if the market is really trending down, then is this probability really accurate? What is the true probability on this trade?
This Iron Condor strategy is very popular in the options trading community, and one reason is because everybody thinks it has a very high probability. But the truth is the probability on this trade is not near as high as we think it is. The reason being that the market does not trend sideways for very long. In fact, if you look at a price chart, you will see that the market normally trends up or it trends down. This makes the probability of an ATM Condor much lower than it appears to be.
Let’s talk about the rainy days. Imagine if a raindrop falls from the sky and lands on a perfectly flat and level surface. If this happens, there is a equal chance that the water will splash to the left or to the right. Now imagine if it’s windy. If we throw some wind into the calculation, then there will be a higher chance that the water will splash the direction of the breeze. The same thing happens when the market is trending in one direction. There is always a higher probability that the underlying will move in the direction of the trend. Therefore, this Condor that appears to have a 79% probability, might only have a 45% probability when we consider the trend. It’s very important to understand this concept because it can really improve your option trading.
Every experienced trader knows that the market normally trends in a direction, making the probability of the Iron Condor not as high as we believe. Those of us who believe in technical analysis should find a way to calculate probability using the trend combined with standard deviations. This would give us a more accurate analysis of the trade. As a final example, a bearish trade will actually have a higher probability in a bearish market than it appears to have in the options analytical software.
I will finish by saying that maybe we should really ask the question: what factors should we include in our calculation when we analyze the probability of an option trade? Should we throw technical analysis out the window and always assume that there is an equal chance for the stock market to go up or down at any given time? When it rains, how often do rain drops land on a perfectly flat and level surface? Do they ever?
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